Spring 2010

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LARGE NATIONAL COIN DEALER

Advantages – Typically pay the most for types of gold coins or jewelry they specialize in and they are usually reputable nationally and locally but you must verify this. The Examiner story found surveyed major reputable coin dealers paid as much as 4-5 times what some hotel coin buyers paid on some rare gold coins. Are usually the quickest in and out to deal with.

Disadvantages – May be far away from where you are and may not buy jewelry. You still must check out their reputation and if they are Better Business Bureau accredited.

LOCAL COIN DEALER

Advantages – They are in your area and The Examiner story found they often paid 3-4 times what hotel coin buyers paid for the same gold coins.

Disadvantages – If reputable and knowledgeable they often pay 10-20% less than major dealers for rare coins and jewelry. Some local coin dealers are not Better Business Bureau accredited and may offer much less due to lack of expertise or integrity. Check out their reputation carefully.

JEWELRY SHOPS

Advantages – For jewelry, not rare gold coins, may be very competitive with local coin shop if reputable and Better Business Bureau accredited. Finely crafted jewelry can bring premiums.

Disadvantages - Experts for buying jewelry may not always be on premises and you must make sure of local reputation and if they are Better Business Bureau accredited. Often pay melt value or slightly higher for rare gold coins that are worth multiples of melt values.

PAWN SHOPS

Advantages – You can buy back some products you sell if you want and some are BBB accredited and give you very competitive prices locally on gold bullion and jewelry.

Disadvantages – Often not in best part of town, bars and barbed wire, and may offer less than previous three. Rare gold coins are usually not their specialty, thus their rare gold coin offers are usually not competitive. Check out their reputation carefully.

GOLD PARTIES

Advantages – You know the person holding the party and it’s held in a comfortable setting.

Disadvantages – Prices paid are often far less than the first three and you often don’t know as much about the actual buyers’ knowledge and integrity and if they are Better Business Bureau accredited. The host typically makes 10% too!

HOTEL BUYERS

Advantages – They’re in your locale and you get paid immediately.

Disadvantages – May pay as little as 20¢ on the dollar compared to buyers previously listed #1 and #2 and they may not really know what they are looking at. They also may not give you an itemized receipt and the process can take the longest. One common coin may take 45 minutes to get a value. Some have been the subject of numerous customer complaints. They may not be Better Business Bureau accredited.

MAIL-AWAY GOLD BUYERS

Advantages – No in person contact and fairly simple to send.

Disadvantages – Offers may be about 20¢ on the dollar and you may have to negotiate to get that or higher. Some have reported having their gold items lost or melted and could not be returned and were refused reimbursement. Some have been the subject of numerous customer complaints resulting in new laws to address some business practices. They may not be Better Business Bureau accredited.

How did stocks do in that same time? For the decade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5 percent by the end of the decade and was down as much as 30 percent at the worst of the crisis in March 2009. The S&P 500 lost 19 percent for the decade. The Nasdaq index lost 42 percent.

Questions have been raised whether gold and its companion precious metals can keep up the pace in the year and decade ahead. Talk of a gold bubble keep percolating up. Yet a steady stream of analysts, including a growing number of mainstream commentators, has been insistently forecasting gold to climb at least to $1,500 in the year ahead and keep on going even higher. Here’s a sample of what they’re saying about coming gold prices:


On the wilder extremes, some analysts have predicted gold as high as $10,000! I shudder to think what shape the world would have to be in to drive gold to $10,000. But I can easily see how the shape the world is in now could push gold up to $1,500 and beyond within a year. I’ll give you 15 solid reasons why I think that it’s highly likely to happen...

1. SECTOR CATCH-UP

Gold lagged the commodities field in the bull surge earlier last year. For the first three quarters, silver gained 50%, platinum added 42%, oil shot up 100%,while gold only managed a 15% gain. This was due in part to the fact that gold didn’t dip as much as silver and platinum in the first place, so it didn’t have as far to recover to get back on track. Even so, gold is overdue for a slingshot forward to catch up with the field and possibly move into the lead again.

As the year came to a close, all three precious metals got much-needed healthy corrections to chill off excessive heat. Nonetheless, the correction appears to be completed as the new year launches, and the rubber-band stretch looks ready to snap back to the upside.

2. DOLLAR DEVALUATION

Uncle Sam is in debt and sponging off the rest of the world to stay afloat.

The massive federal deficit of $12 trillion already equals more than 90% of U.S. GDP and will be approaching 100% by the end of 2010 as it expands by more than a trillion dollars per year. Your share, my share, every American’s share of this debt is $39,542 as the second decade of the millennium begins, and the collective tab is growing at the rate of nearly $4 billion daily. That doesn’t even include the billions more proposed for Obama care. Unprecedented money supply that has shot off the top of historical charts dilutes and waters down the value of the greenback.

Washington appears to want a weaker dollar and seems to be deliberately engineering devaluation of the greenback to inflate away the national debt. America’s financial irresponsibility and arrogance undercuts confidence in the dollar.

The dollar rallies from time to time as concerns bubble up about the weakness of the euro as EU countries struggle with their own economic woes. But these are bear market “noise” rallies that don’t last. The long term trend since 2001 typically points in one direction and one direction only – DOWN.

The dollar and gold usually move in opposite directions. When the dollar falls...as it will almost certainly keep doing...gold rises.

3. HYPERINFLATION

Inflation is supposedly tame for now, but it won’t last. Inflation has seemingly been held in check because consumers and companies aren’t spending. One in ten or more Americans are out of work, and the other nine are afraid they’re next, so they’re holding onto what cash they have instead of spending it. But the recovery will come eventually and then, look out!

The nearly $10 trillion dollars gushing from the government for economic stimulus and bailouts (which will nearly double the national debt) and the easy-money printing-press fiscal policy of the Fed virtually guarantees a new financial bubble leading to rapidly escalating inflation that runs ahead of the Fed’s action (or lack of it) to rein it in.

The dike holding back inflation is already springing leaks all over the place (though you wouldn’t know it listening to some dubious government reports).

4. CHINA & INDIA China was the biggest central bank purchaser of gold in 2009, adding 454 tons to bring its gold reserves up to 1,054 tons. Though that’s a small chunk of their huge $2.3 trillion in reserves, it serves notice that Beijing is beginning to prefer gold to dollars. While China buys gold for its central bank reserves, nearly doubling its gold holdings over the last five years (fifth largest gold reserves in the world), Beijing is also urging its 1.3 billion citizens to stock up on the yellow metal for their personal savings, which they can do at their local bank as well as at retail outlets. In the year-end holiday buying spree for Christmas and the Chinese New Year, gold sales doubled at China National Gold, while Caibai, the largest gold store in China, reported 30 percent more business year-on-year, according to the Beijing Morning Post. India has long been the world’s largest gold buyer for its jewelry fabrication trade. Gold is prized for gifts during the wedding season and for special observances. High gold prices have held jewelry demand in check for the moment, but new buying usually returns once it is clear that a new high support level has been established. And when gift-buying time rolls around, customers can’t wait any longer and readily pay the going price. Now India’s government is stocking up on gold, too, scooping up 200 metric tons worth $6.7 billion sold by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), giving India the tenth largest gold reserves in the world. It’s the biggest single central bank purchase of gold in 30 years.

“We will see hyperinflation soon, and I believe gold will be $2011 an ounce by the end of 2011” - Former President of the non-profit, 32,000 - member ANA (American Numismatic Association) ASK MIKE What factors are affecting rare coin prices? The state of the rare coin market is being affected by a number of factors that either exert upward or downward pressures on pricing. Factors that are tending to push prices up are rising metals prices, increased orders from established clients, decreased availability of better coins and greatly increased response to dealer advertising by new customers. Factors exerting downward pressure are recession issues, like job, housing and stock market losses along with increased selling and decreased credit availability. All in all these forces have tended to offset each other with many areas starting to trend higher this year.

5. CENTRAL BANK RESERVES

China and India aren’t the only governments packing their central bank vaults with gold. The World Gold Council reports that the world’s central banks bought $28 billion worth of gold in 2009. It’s the first net expansion in reserves in a generation, since 1988, according to New York-based researcher CPM Group. The world’s central banks, led by the U.S., Germany, Italy, and France, hold a total of 29,600 tons of gold now, says the World Gold Council.

Those banks that sold off their gold earlier in the decade took a massive beating on a stupid move. Switzerland sold 1,300 tons of gold for about $12 billion in 1999. That same gold is worth $47 billion today almost four times as much. Over the course of the UK’s 17 gold auctions ending in March 2002, the highest price they got was $265.50 an ounce – 74 percent less than the price today...and that was the HIGHEST price they got.

Meanwhile, the dollar’s share of global currency reserves fell to 62.8 percent in the second quarter, the lowest level in a decade according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But the dollar isn’t the only victim of gold’s pumped-up muscle. This year, gold jumped 27 percent versus the dollar and yuan, 31 percent in rubles, and 22 percent in euros.

This chart from James Turk shows how gold gained versus all major currencies over the last decade.

6. GOLD ETFS

Introduced in recent years, the new gold exchange traded funds, or ETFs, promote wider interest in gold among mainstream investors. ETFs must buy physical ounces of gold to back their shares. That amounts to huge demand for gold. Globally, gold ETF holdings exceed 1,325 tonnes. That’s 42.6 million ounces. The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is now the sixth largest holder of gold in the world, bigger than all but five central banks and the IMF. The popularity of gold ETFs should continue to explode as gold prices erupt upwards.

7. INSTITUTIONAL INTEREST

After a couple of decades of indifference and even hostility toward gold, major institutional investors are taking a big interest in the yellow metal. Huge insurance companies and hedge fund managers are hopping on the bandwagon to the tune of big bucks. America’s third largest insurance firm, Northwestern Life, late last year bought gold for the first time ever in its 152-year history. Nine in ten hedge fund managers recently surveyed say they are buying gold for their own personal accounts as well, fearing a weak dollar and resulting inflation. Pension funds like the huge Teacher Retirement System of Texas are adding gold, some for the very first time. This institutional interest poses new demand pressures on gold that has long been absent.

8. THE END OF PRODUCER HEDGING

A drag on the gold market was producer hedging, where producers would sell their future gold production at a guaranteed price as a hedge against lower gold prices going forward. The practice tended to keep an artificial lid on gold prices. With gold’s relentless ascendance, gold hedging is now virtually nil.

Last year, Newmont Mining unwound its entire hedge book. Late in the year, Barrick Gold, long known as one of the biggest hedgers, made a $3 billion share offering to raise money to close out its 9.5 million ounce hedge book.

The end – or at least the suspension – of gold hedging removes supply that inhibited price appreciation. The guys who produce the gold obviously believe it’s going to fetch a higher price in the future.

9. JEWELRY DEMAND

Until the recent rise of investment demand enabled by ETFs, jewelry has been the predominant demand driver for gold. Industrial uses account for some of the demand, but it’s the pretty gold baubles and spangles that gobble the most gold. With gold soaring above $1,000 while people are still smarting from the financial wounds of the recession, jewelry demand has slumped, down 25% in 2009. That represents huge pent-up demand for gold jewelry. Even if they’re hesitant to buy it now, when the economic recovery comes for real, people just cannot resist the lure of gold jewelry, especially in India where gold is deeply integrated into the culture. When they feel they can afford it, the gold jewelry buyers will be back in droves. The question is when.
 

10. POTENTIAL DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION

The government and many on Wall Street have declared an end to the recession and the beginning of the recovery. But there’s still the commercial real estate sector’s problems that may be the other dropping shoe of the economic crisis. And sovereign debt worries in Europe, California and the Middle East could cascade into a new wave of crisis.

Consumer’s aren’t spending, so manufacturers aren’t making stuff that isn’t being sold by retailers who aren’t paying their rent to the shopping mall operators who are defaulting on their bank loans and closing up shop all over the country. The shaky and fragile recovery could easily be knocked off its wobbly legs with only a slight nudge, like a new financial crisis of bank failures.

Gold is the traditional safe haven asset in times of severe economic dislocation.

11. BANK FAILURES

By year end, the number of failed banks reached over 140. At the end of October, regulators shut the doors on nine banks in a single day! The FDIC’s list of banks in trouble runs more than 400, and the list keeps growing. More will likely be closed in 2010 as 15 were shattered in January and more are on the way due in part to the escalation of the housing crisis. It is estimated that 1 in 4 mortgages in the U.S. are technically “upside down”.

The FDIC itself is on shaky ground and to stay solvent has resorted to requiring advance payments from banks of future premiums for the insurance.

How long American depositors will stay calm about keeping so much of their money in a bank is problematic. More of this money could end up in gold.

When some people can’t trust a bank,
they put their trust in gold.

12. GEO-POLITICAL CRISIS

It could be another 9-11 attack on the U.S., an airliner blown up, a “dirty bomb” attack on a major city, or even homegrown terrorist attacks on shopping malls. It could be an explosion of trouble between Iran and Israel or escalation of hostilities between the Koreas north and south. It could be a confrontation between the U.S. and China or Russia or both. It could be Pakistan unleashing a nuclear weapon, either accidentally or on purpose, or U.S. military intervention in Yemen.

Electric tension in the world is on raw nerve edge and ripe for human beings to make disastrous miscalculations and mistakes. In this high-tension, high-stakes environment, there’s no margin for error, but imperfect people make errors. It doesn’t take a psychic to foretell that the probabilities for a major geo-political crisis erupting over the next 12 months are very high. The only questions are which crisis will it be where and when. In the face of uncertainty and fear, people worldwide take comfort in the financial security of gold.

13. FLAT PRODUCTION

At the very time when investment demand for gold is about to catch fire in the mainstream, gold production has been sliding backwards. A gold mine is by nature a diminishing asset that loses value as the gold it holds is removed. In South Africa, one of the world’s largest gold producers, the mines are old and depleted.

No major new gold fields have been discovered in years, and what new gold is being found tends to be in inhospitable, remote, and politically unstable/unfriendly parts of the world. It takes as much as a decade to find, prove, permit, and produce a new gold find.

Central bank sales as a source of supply have dried up. The only remaining supply source is scrap gold, which is why we see so many ads on TV offering to buy old gold. But there are only just so many old wedding bands and gold watches tucked away forgotten in drawers and keepsake chests.

Bottom line: At this time, there doesn’t appear to be any dependable major new supply to meet the major new demand or gold.

14. COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE

Technical analysts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, co-editors of The Aden Forecast, consider gold at its present price a “bargain,” saying this is still only the beginning of a long-running bullish commodity super-cycle that has years to go yet.

Globe-trotting investment guru Jim Rogers believes the super-cycle could run another eight years and is stockpiling gold on the dips.

Even at recent nominal record high prices, gold is nowhere near its real record high.

To exceed the 1980 record high, gold will have to reach $2,500 in 2010 dollars.

It has lots of room to go before setting any new records in real terms.

15. MAINSTREAM PUBLICITY

The mainstream financial press that not so long ago snubbed gold as a “barbarous relic” and tut-tutted the fact that gold earns no interest now are trumpeting gold’s virtues. Funny how a major crisis will knock sense into even the most hardheaded and misguided gold skeptics. Over recent months, major financial magazines such as Forbes, Fortune, Money, and Smart Money have featured gold on the front cover. Almost every day the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times run news items related to gold, and Barron’s highlights gold in its “Commodities Corner.”

Recently, though, some of these same self-styled “experts” who couldn’t even spell G-O-L-D not so long ago – at least they rarely used the word in a sentence except to sneer – have been clucking their tongues and declaring a gold bubble that’s sure to go POP! any minute now. Of course, they’ve been wrong for nine years, but that doesn’t seem to educate them. They’re still wrong, so ignore the “gold bubble” babble for now and BUY ON THE DIPS!

Taken in total, those 15 reasons why gold should top $1,500 and beyond make a pretty strong statement. But why does itmatter if gold goes to $1,500... or $2,000... or $10,000? What difference will it make to your daily routine, to your financial security and well-being? If you happen to be one of the smart ones who owns gold, one answer seems obvious: It matters because you’ll be richer. With gold at $1,500, your gold bullion holdings will have gained about 40% more in value. It also means that if you wait to buy until gold goes to $1,500, it will cost you about 40% more to buy gold. I say “at least,” because that only figures on the price of gold itself. But as we have seen in the past, when demand for gold coins and bars skyrockets, the supply can’t keep up because there are a finite number of coins and bars available. In fact, because of overwhelming demand for American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins, the U.S. Mint had to periodically suspend sells of some products. Scarcity and demand at times makes the premiums for gold bullion coins skyrocket... that is, the cost over and above the actual melt value of the coins. So the premiums you’ll have to pay for gold bullion coins will at times likely be much higher than today’s price. Premiums on numismatic coins also often get caught up in the fever and swell up along with bullion coins even though the actual gold content may represent only a relatively small part of the collectible coin’s value. But the impact of $1,500 gold reaches beyond just fattening up the value of your gold coins. The consequences could touch almost every aspect of your daily life.

Here are 15 reasons why $1,500 gold matters and the effect it could have... 1. FEAR. The clamor for gold is something more than a financial phenomenon. It represents deep-seated and widespread fear – fear of government’s inadequacies and wrong-headed policies, fear of currency debasement, fear of civil unrest and anarchy, fear of geopolitical instability. At any time in history and in any civilization, when gold zooms, it means people are just plain scared. 2. LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AND MONETARY SYSTEM. Or maybe I should just say loss of confidence in fiat currencies, period, regardless of who issues them. Gold has been climbing versus all major currencies in the world, not just the dollar. This indicates that people don’t trust governments, especially the U.S. government now, and don’t trust the promise of stable value that paper money is supposed to represent. They DO trust gold, because it has no counterparty liability...it’s worth what it’s worth, not what some government says it’s worth. 3. INFLATION. Inflation purely and simply means a decline in the purchasing power of a currency, which inflates the amount of currency it takes to buy goods and services. Since the Federal Reserve was established, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its value. That means that one of today’s dollars would only buy a nickel’s worth in 1913. In a more recent timeframe, a dollar today will buy only one-fourth the amount of gold that it would buy only nine years ago. If gold reaches $1,500, it means that one of today’s dollars will buy only two-thirds what it will purchase now, today. Inflation has far-reaching consequences to your financial security. Inflation is much more than just a function of price; it affects your entire standard of living. 4. CASH SAVINGS WORTH LESS. The cash you prudently stashed in your bank savings is losing money every day. Unless you’ve found a generous (and safe) bank that will pay you more interest than the rate of inflation, your safety-net nest egg keeps shrinking as the purchasing power of the dollar shrinks. If gold goes to $1,500 in the next year, you will have lost about one-third of the value of your money in the bank in gold terms.

5. BOND VALUES FALL. Inflation makes bond prices fall, and as the fixed interest they pay slips behind the inflation curve, you could lose money the longer you hold them. Those “safe”municipal bonds you’ve trusted could be shrinking your retirement security.

6. HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES. The cost of precious metals and commodities – the basic building blocks of civilizations – depends largely on the equilibrium of supply and demand, but the state of confidence in fiat currencies plays a huge role, too. When confidence in currencies erodes, people and countries (especially China these days) start hoarding goods that have real value. With iron and copper and wood and cement, you can build an empire.

7. HIGHER CONSTRUCTION COSTS. With basic materials costs puffed up because of inflation, costs for construction skyrocket. Projects both public and private suffer crippling cost overruns, causing some to be abandoned only partially-built and others to be scrapped while still in blueprints. Infrastructure deteriorates as maintenance and upgrades are put off for lack of funds or simply ignored to begin with as hopeless.

8. HIGHER MANUFACTURING COSTS. Inflated costs for raw materials to make toasters and cell phones and clothes and cars have to be borne by somebody. If the manufacturer has to eat these costs, it cuts to the bottom line, meaning something has to go... which usually means job cuts. More likely, though, the manufacturer just passes along the increases to you, the retail shopper.

9. HIGHER JEWELRY PRICES. Particularly in jewelry manufacturing, higher costs for the precious metals to make gold and silver baubles and bangles trickles straight through to the price tag at the retail counter. You’ll have to dig deeper into your wallet (or charge card) to sport more bling.

11. HIGHER ENERGY COSTS. We’re all familiar with this one and how much it hurts when it costs a lot more...the cost of gasoline at the pump, the cost of warming your home in winter, the cost of electricity to run...well...practically everything in your life these days. Gold and oil often run parallel paths. If gold rises 50% over the coming year, it’s entirely likely that oil will climb with it at a similar rate, even drive the gold price higher. Not only does that mean higher gasoline and energy costs, but it means added transportation and manufacturing costs which will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers.

11. HIGHER FOOD COSTS. It takes fuel to grow crops and raise livestock. Higher fuel costs mean higher food costs across the board, though agricultural products that are particularly fuel intensive will rise more than others.

12. HIGHER CLOTHING COSTS. Higher costs for the fibers, either natural or synthetic, and leather...and don’t forget the metals for zippers, buckles, brads, and grommets.

13. HIGHER COSTS OF IMPORTED GOODS. As the dollar sinks against other major currencies in the world, goods we import from those countries cost more. Cars, electronic gadgets, clothes, food and beverages, and everything else we buy from overseas cost more when the people we buy them from think less of the currency we pay them with, so they demand more of it for their goods.

14. HIGHER LABOR COSTS. Invariably when the cost of living rises, workers want more pay to maintain or improve their standard of living. Demands for wage increases, if met, add more cost to goods and services, causing prices to consumers to rise, which causes labor to demand more wages. It’s called the wage-price spiral, and it’s an ugly thing to see. We’re about to get a very close look at it whether we want to or not when the job market eventually gets back to normal.

15. MORTGAGES, AUTO LOANS, CREDIT CARD DEBT CHEAPER TO PAY OFF. And while inflation drives up the value of your property without your lifting a finger to help, that humongous mortgage on it gets cheaper and easier to repay as the dollars you pay back become worth less than the dollars you borrowed to buy it. Hey, what works for Uncle Sam works for you, too! Same goes for that five-year auto loan and your credit card balances if you carry any sizeable balances (not wise, but maybe for some reason you couldn’t help it). This is one of the few benefits you get from runaway inflation. However, the bad news is that it’s offset by the higher prices you have to pay for what everybody else wants to sell.




Whether gold ultimately tops out at $1,500 or $2,000 or $5,000 is only a matter of speculation about the degree of its rise. What’s important to recognize is that a significant rise – not just a little bit but a LOT – in gold prices is practically hardwired into the current economic matrix. Whether hyperinflation hits this year or next year, it’s coming...unless the Washington smoke-and-mirrors wizards come up with a magical way to make it disappear (hide it where we can’t see it, in other words).

The new year brings some tentative signs of hope for improvement in the economy, but many tripwires threaten the path to recovery, and the slightest misstep could send it all sprawling on its face again. The potential for a double-dip recession still lurks.

If the classic Great Depression pattern repeats, we could see a severe crunch and crash following the spectacular bear market rally in stocks this year. Keep in mind that after the Crash of ’29 there were several impressive bear market rallies that failed and fell lower over the next four years. The market didn’t begin actual recovery until 1933. As Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Be on your guard for possible market shocks ahead.

The mess Washington and Wall Street has made of the economy and the worse they’re making it by trying to fix it virtually guarantees hyperinflation just ahead as we feel our way along in the dark for brighter times. As resources analyst Rick Rule says, “There’s light at the end of the tunnel – and it’s an oncoming train!”

You don’t have to stand in the middle of the track and get run over. You don’t have to let your hard earned retirement dollars shrivel away while you stand helplessly by and do nothing. You can do something about it and prepare yourself to dodge out of the way of the oncoming inflation train. If financial security for your future matters to you, then $1,500 gold matters... a lot.